A military coup is a distinct possibility. The death of Kim Jong-Il has created a power vacuum, and many generals are looking to fill it. There are coups that have been in the works for a long time. That said, Kim Jong-Un is not an idiot like the Western media and agencies like mine have spread as rumor. He is not particularly capable, but he is Kim Jong-Il’s son — he is ruthless and largely unwilling to relinquish power. A military coup against him would divide the country, and coup leaders cannot have that. NK is strong because it is united, and its leaders know this. Any coup would need to be mostly bloodless and garner popular support, likely through moving Kim Jong-Un to a prominent but powerless position. The most likely culprits in this scenario are Kim Jong-Il’s sister, Kim Kyong-hui, and her husband, Chang Sung-taek. Sung-taek has been a prominent figure in North Korea’s leadership since Kim Jong-Il’s stroke in 2008, and Kim Kyong-hui is a high-ranking general with considerable sway. Were they to stage a coup, the situation would likely remain rather stable with few ramifications for South Korea.

A less likely but scarier situation involves China. The Chinese are largely tired of dealing with North Korea, and Korea as a whole. They may make a move to establish power in North Korea. The Chinese already have a great deal of sway in NK due to them being North Korea’s only real supporter. They may manipulate the situation there to consolidate more influence and reign in the North Korean rogue state. While this would be good for the Chinese, it would scare us here in the United States. While I doubt it would come to open conflict, posturing would be made over the issue of Taiwan. The US would likely arm Taiwan, citing a Chinese power grab in North Korea as grounds to prepare for one in Taiwan. The Russians also have a vested interest in the developments in North Korea, because they are a buyer of arms and military technology (particularly of the nuclear sort). They do not want that market to collapse, so they would likely maneuver to prevent instability in North Korea.

The South Koreans are the most important actor here. South Korea wants to retake the region, but they know this would anger the Chinese, Japanese, and US (though they are South Korea’s allies, Japan and the US care more about relations with China than they do about the reunification of Korea). Any action by South Korea to destabilize North Korea will likely result in a swift response from North Korea. North Korea’s leaders know that the best way to consolidate power would be to head North Korea in a military conflict against South Korea. South Korea also knows this, and they also realize the ramifications any action would entail. Internal conflict will, as we see it, be the only outcome. All others will watch closely and carefully, and this will be used as a bargaining chip in the next few weeks. I guarantee there will be a UN Security Council meeting over this and Russia, China, and the US will debate the issue. I would not worry too much. If anything, the situation in North Korea is no more unpredictable than it was before Kim Jong-Il’s death.